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The summer peak season is one of two key litmus tests for the freight market, but a number of variables at play this year made for somewhat complicated results.
Coming off a June that underperformed historical patterns, this year’s Fourth of July ramp-up largely followed suit. With many shippers holding well-stocked inventories after pulling freight forward to avoid tariffs, typical seasonal tightness arrived late and fizzled quickly, making the holiday week a fleeting high point amid an otherwise soft peak season.
The short-lived volume surge offered carriers a brief reprieve from the persistently low rate environment. Supply showed some signs of strain but recovered quickly, indicating that current market conditions will likely persist or deteriorate further before improving.
For now, the only upside demand risk is the possibility that the Supreme Court rules that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact retaliatory tariffs was illegal — a decision that could reverse the current policies and restore trade flows. Otherwise, demand will likely continue to fade in Q3 and remain soft well into next year.
The combination of low demand, soft rates and high carrier operating costs remains the most significant risk to capacity. If current conditions persist, reductions will continue in the form of carrier exits and smaller truck counts at active fleets. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration initiatives like English proficiency requirements also pose a risk — the impacts have been limited so far, but that could change if enforcement ramps up.
A healthy broader economy and relatively strong consumer spending should continue to support demand for now. The next period of volatility will come as the back-to-school shopping season begins, though rising inflation later this year could limit its impact.
That said, shippers and carriers can expect more of the same market conditions in August.
Keep reading for a closer look at what’s unfolding across demand, supply and rates.
Accepted contract volumes remained below prior-year levels in June. Spot activity rose 6% year-over-year, driven primarily by reefer and flatbed, while van volumes held flat.
The spot market lift likely stemmed from seasonal routing guide disruption — amplified by end-of-quarter pressure and fiscal year closeouts — alongside stabilizing import volumes in June. With tariffs on Chinese goods lifted in May, many shippers rushed to frontload freight, which should support continued import strength through the remainder of July.
With peak season and pull-forward activity winding down — and new import orders following suit — freight volumes are set to continue to see downward pressure through August. Back-to-school shopping may bolster volumes slightly but not nearly enough to drive a significant market shift. The outcome of the Supreme Court’s tariff decision remains a key variable, but until then, our forecast calls for muted demand well into next year.
Supply easily handled June’s muted seasonal demand surge. Van rejection rates ticked up in the back half of the month but stayed well below historical norms and failed to generate meaningful pricing pressure. Reefer rejections were slightly higher year-over-year but followed a similar pattern.
Class 8 truck orders were below replacement levels for the fifth straight month, as carriers remained hesitant to invest in fleets amid weak demand. Trucking employment and active carrier counts also continued to decline, signaling that supply is still slowly but steadily contracting.
Unless near-term volumes rebound significantly, capacity reductions will continue this year. And with a major demand shock remaining unlikely, capacity reduction alone won’t be enough to drive a meaningful market shift.
Spot rates were volatile around the Fourth of July, but the surge faded as quickly as it arrived, particularly for dry van equipment. National trends softened further as the month progressed and indicators point to flat or declining year-over-year rates through the remainder of July as the market finds a new floor.
Rates will likely follow historical trends through August amid declining demand and slow capacity attrition. Some volatility could emerge around Labor Day, but any disruption is expected to be muted and short-lived.
June data showed a moderate month-over-month increase in consumer spending and more labor market strength as unemployment dipped slightly. Inflation also ticked up but it has yet to directly impact freight demand.
A strong labor market should continue to support consumer health through the end of the quarter, but rising prices for consumer goods due to tariff-related hikes remain a real risk to spending.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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