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Volatility tied to Q3’s close and the late-September announcement of new non-domiciled CDL regulations has largely settled. Long-haul markets saw the greatest impact, though even that was muted.
With the U.S. Court of Appeals now pausing enforcement, near-term supply pressure should continue to ease. Combined with low demand and low rates, freight market conditions are unusually calm for this time of year.
Reefer rejection rates followed normal seasonal patterns through October before falling in early November, with only pockets of tightness driven by seasonal food shipments and freeze-protect demand. With continued softness across other major modal markets, current capacity should easily cover short-term holiday or weather-related disruptions.
Longer-term conditions are less certain, as equipment orders remain below replacement levels and ongoing regulatory uncertainty could create downside risk.
Import volumes remain soft due to the summer pull-forward surge that left shippers well-stocked long before typical peak season preparation began. With retail forecasts now pointing to declining volumes through year-end and manufacturing still contracting, meaningful near-term demand growth looks unlikely.
The government shutdown disrupted economic and labor market data availability this month, but Bank of America card data shows consumers are still spending despite inflation and interest rate uncertainty.
While indicators point to a muted peak season overall, some tightness and rate increases will still materialize. Reefer should see the most significant disruption as food shipments pick up through November and December, but dry van equipment remains susceptible to demand spikes and severe weather events, especially as drivers take time off for the holidays. Even so, strong supply levels should limit the duration of any disruptions.
Read on for a full breakdown of demand, supply, rates and economic conditions this month.
After early October’s short-lived volatility subsided, truckload demand weakness has held steady through mid-November. Contract volumes flattened after mid-month, and DAT showed a slight month-over-month dip in spot load posts, though year-over-year activity remained positive. Import-driven freight was soft for this time of year due to reduced peak-season ordering following earlier pull-forward efforts, and ongoing manufacturing contraction continued to weigh on volumes.
Volumes will likely remain soft through year-end, with volatility limited to typical seasonal patterns. That includes reefer tightness as holiday food demand rises, short weather-related bumps and van disruptions tied to annual capacity shutdowns in late December. Continued manufacturing contraction and a weak investment environment amid persistent tariff uncertainty remain the primary near-term downside risks to future volumes.
As October volatility subsided, capacity has remained in balance through mid-November, with tender acceptance holding steady across most major markets. Reefer markets tightened on seasonal food and freeze-protect lanes, but the impact was limited to regions that typically see pressure this time of year.
Despite low volumes, low rates and ongoing regulatory uncertainty, the capacity market is still oversupplied for now. Severe winter weather and drivers taking time off around the holidays are the primary near-term supply risks through year-end, but if equipment orders remain below replacement levels and CDL enforcement begins again, capacity could see challenges once demand turns upward.
Van rates did not move meaningfully from mid-October through mid-November. Reefer showed modest month-over-month and year-over-year gains, but the strength was tied mostly to seasonal food shipments and freeze-protect demand rather than a sustained shift.
Rates are expected to follow typical seasonal patterns through year-end, with any volatility likely to be short-lived and driven by severe weather or seasonal demand. Beyond the holidays, a meaningful rate recovery is unlikely until long-term supply challenges materialize alongside a sharp volume increase.
The government shutdown interrupted normal economic reporting, leaving gaps in CPI, labor and other macro indicators at the time of writing. However, Bank of America card data showed a fifth consecutive month of rising consumer spending in October, with per-household spending up month-over-month and year-over-year.
Consumer spending should continue to support near-term freight demand, but it is unlikely to drive a sustained rebound until meaningful inflation and interest rate improvements materialize. This is especially true as widespread uncertainty around how these factors will influence the economy is expected to weigh more heavily on consumers and businesses as they consider larger discretionary purchases.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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