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The significant volatility tied to Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day persisted into early June before stabilizing as backlogs were cleared and capacity networks normalized. National rates have eased slightly from recent highs but remain elevated, and tender rejections are still well above prior-year levels, signaling continued shipper routing guide challenges.
This break in disruption is only temporary. End-of-month and end-of-quarter urgency will soon converge with the ramp-up to a short Fourth of July shipping week that will disrupt routing guides as tender rejections and rates surge to or past the record levels set in May.
Once that disruption subsides in mid- to late July, the market should stabilize in most regions, following a typical seasonal pattern. Many shippers see this timeframe as a prime opportunity to lock in new contractual pricing through the remainder of the year after months of navigating historically high tender rejections and spot rates. As the contractual floor resets higher, routing guide compliance should improve and begin to relieve pressure on spot conditions.
Aside from seasonal surges, overall freight volumes remain stable and are showing some signs of improvement, with consumer spending holding steady and manufacturing expanding again in May. Import volumes are also rising as shippers front-load volumes to stay ahead of new tariff measures that may take effect later this year.
These green shoots should support healthy near-term demand, but rising inflation and elevated energy costs still present longer-term demand risk, even as fuel and energy prices ease.
Market conditions through Q3 will therefore hinge primarily on whether carriers can keep enough capacity on the road to service demand amid declining driver availability, high operating costs and ongoing regulatory pressure. While these variables indicate a higher-for-longer rate environment that could extend well into 2027, carriers have historically added capacity when rates support it, so the coming months should offer more clarity on what to expect heading into the next year.
Overall freight volumes were stable in May, but routing guide disruptions continued to drive strong spot market utilization. Consumer spending remained strong, while import volumes increased and manufacturing expanded across nearly all sectors.
End-of-quarter and seasonal demand will build through month-end ahead of the July Fourth holiday before giving way to a relatively stable period through the rest of the summer, with back-to-school and fall retail inventory preparation providing some additional support.
Capacity tightness stabilized in June as the effects of Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day faded, but tender rejections remain well above prior-year levels across all modes. Cross-border capacity conditions have been particularly challenging as regulatory enforcement around English language proficiency and prior cabotage warnings and violations continues to intensify.
Conditions will soon tighten again and remain so until after the Fourth of July wave of volatility has passed. With a meaningful demand fluctuation still unlikely in the near term, freight market conditions will be largely defined by how much capacity carriers can keep on the road amid high operating costs, aging equipment and intensifying regulatory enforcement in the coming months.
Record-setting rate increases during CVSA Roadcheck Week carried through Memorial Day and into early June before leveling off as capacity normalized. National rates have since pulled back slightly but remain elevated as of mid-month.
End-of-quarter urgency and the July Fourth holiday ramp-up have the potential to drive rates to the highest levels of the year. Where rates settle after the disruption will set the baseline for near-term contract renegotiations, and contract rate increases are expected to continue through year-end.
Manufacturing expanded for a fifth consecutive month in May. Consumer spending remained strong, the labor market held steady and inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years as energy costs climbed.
While near-term economic conditions should remain stable, inflation is becoming a more prominent risk. Further price increases could limit the potential for interest rate cuts and weigh on both consumer spending and the housing market heading into next year.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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