"*" indicates required fields
"*" indicates required fields
"*" indicates required fields
Welcome to Arrive’s comprehensive outlook for national dry van and reefer truckload rates for January 2023 through December 2025. The Arrive Insights® team generated this forecast through a combination of extensive historical research and output from the predictive models built into ARRIVEnow, our proprietary technology platform.
Successfully navigating freight market ebbs and flows begins with a basic understanding of the relationship between rates and the unique components of truckload supply and demand. Simply put, high or increasing demand and tight capacity will cause upward rate pressure, whereas low or easing demand and ample available capacity will drive rates down.
By tracking directional trends for truckload demand (volume) and available capacity (trucks) in the market at any given time, we can predict rate trends with a high degree of accuracy and consistency.
We anticipate spot rates will remain relatively stable through the remainder of 2024 and most of the first half of 2025, showing moderate year-over-year growth with typical seasonal volatility. Contract rates have stabilized, indicating a floor has been reached. Further reductions are unlikely as current rates are already nearing carrier breakeven points, but significant near-term increases are also improbable as shippers retain pricing power.
As the contract-spot rate gap slowly closes, the market will become more vulnerable to significant disruption. However, given the persistent capacity surplus, recent hurricanes, short-lived strikes and other disruptions are not likely to create long-term routing guide challenges. Any sustained disruption would require a substantial black swan event or other catalyst, making it difficult to precisely predict if and when rapid spot rate growth could occur in the next inflationary period.
Routing guides have been largely intact throughout 2024 and should remain as such through at least H1 2025, with some increased vulnerability to disruption in H2 2025.
Seasonal demand will continue to drive any regional or nationwide rate volatility and should make rate trends relatively easy to anticipate.
Asset carriers will face ongoing pressure from shippers to provide lower rates, making it difficult for many to operate profitably. In turn, more carriers may have to shut down operations or reduce investment in their fleets, reducing available capacity in the market.
Without a meaningful capacity disruption or black swan event, we do not expect spot rates to cross contract rates. In turn, rate growth and disruption duration during the next inflationary cycle will likely be muted.
Continued reefer routing guide volatility during seasonal volume fluctuations illustrates greater vulnerability to surging demand and indicates that the freight market’s recovery may be further along for reefer equipment.
Forecast Indicates:
Van spot rates will reach a peak year-over-year growth rate of 12% in Q3 2025.
Van contract rates will reach a peak year-over-year growth rate of 5% in Q4 2025.
Reefer spot rates will reach a peak year-over-year growth rate of 12% in Q3 2025.
Reefer contract rates will reach a peak year-over-year growth rate of 4% in Q4 2025.
The dry van spot-contract rate spread will reach a low of $0.25 per mile by Q3 2025.
The reefer spot-contract rate spread will reach a low of $0.11 per mile late in Q4 2025.
Freight tonnage appears unlikely to significantly improve trucking conditions, but a resilient economy and steady consumer behavior are supporting relatively stable demand for now. However, downside risks persist amid signs of a potential economic downturn.
Stable routing guides should continue to drive strong contract market share as limited demand shifts to the spot market.
The downside risk associated with rising interest rates has shifted following the FED’s recent cut and its reported plans for making several more soon. Additional cuts would galvanize housing and lending activity, creating upside risk for freight demand.
In September, manufacturing sector activity contracted for the 22nd time in the last 23 months, indicating more setbacks for one of the biggest freight drivers.
Cooling labor market trends pose a greater downside risk to demand, but overall labor conditions remain stable. If the latter continues, we expect consumer spending to stay at or near current levels.
The market remains oversupplied, and although there are signs of financial struggles and right-sizing, carriers are still resilient, which limits vulnerability to market disruptions in the near term.
The surge of capacity that entered the market during the last inflationary rate cycle is now slowly correcting as drivers exit and authority revocations continue.
Trucking employment is down from its peak but remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Strong routing guide compliance for van equipment amid seasonal and weather-related disruptions indicates that capacity is still sufficient to support current demand.
Reefer routing guides will continue to face challenges from seasonal demand surges, indicating this equipment type will be more susceptible to disruptive events.
Private fleets are continuing to realize new efficiencies and recapture market share by investing in growing their tractor counts, which is prolonging the capacity surplus and limiting demand in the for-hire spot market.
This forecast outlines what we believe will be the most likely scenario based on the information available at the time of writing. The upside and downside risks presented could materialize due to unforeseen events, including but not limited to the following:
Ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East may continue to impact global trade. Similarly, tensions between China and Taiwan could affect Asia-U.S. relations and trade, particularly regarding Taiwan’s significant semiconductor production.
Although a recession seems unlikely in the short term, uncertainty remains. Effects from elevated inflation and interest rates are still emerging and could worsen conditions faster than expected, leading to declining trucking demand due to reduced consumer spending and manufacturing slowdowns.
Severe weather frequently disrupts the freight market. Winter storms early in Q1 and recent hurricanes Helene and Milton have had notable short-term impacts to truckload markets. The full extent of Helene and Milton’s impact is yet to be determined, but the expectation is that after a few weeks of relief support, rates will move back in line with seasonal norms for van and reefer equipment.
Spot rates for public truckload carriers have been below the operating cost per mile for nearly two years. When this happens, spot rates usually rebound or experience upward pressure because rates can only fall so far before carriers start losing money and exit the market. This scenario establishes a rate floor, which is where we have landed with both spot and contract rates today. As more capacity exits the market, spot rates will likely reset higher after each period of seasonal volatility.
Volatile fuel prices have impacted forecast trends, with rapid fuel surcharge changes complicating the measurement of forecast errors. These fluctuations can also alter shipper and carrier behavior. For instance, rapidly declining fuel costs create more favorable conditions for carriers and reduce pressure on shippers seeking cost reductions. Although fuel prices have been relatively stable recently, the past 2-3 years have redefined fuel price volatility.
The national average spot and contract rates per mile used in this report are sourced from DAT and undergo no additional processing by Arrive. However, DAT sometimes updates previously published rates, which can lead to variations between our report and materials created by DAT.
Based on the macroeconomic factors impacting supply and demand in the domestic truckload freight market, we aim to set reasonable expectations for directional movements of the national average spot and contract rates published by DAT.