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Last month’s surge of fuel-driven volatility has faded into more typical seasonal patterns. Capacity softened following the Easter holiday, and diesel prices remain elevated but have stabilized on a weekly basis.
These shifts helped bring national dry van linehaul rates down $0.05 to $1.97 per mile since the start of the month, nearly in line with where they were before the disruption. Spot market activity remains strong, with load posts up 68% year-over-year as shippers turn to it for coverage both strategically and when routing guide failures necessitate.
This relatively steady environment should persist through April, but it is very much the calm before what will be a particularly stormy 100 Days of Summer. The peak season begins with a challenging three-week stretch, starting with CVSA Roadcheck Week on May 12, which last year sidelined more than 13,000 vehicles and 3,300 drivers while sending dry van spot rates up nearly 10%.
This year, vehicle inspections will target ELD tampering and cargo securement, and driver inspections will lean into English language proficiency and non-domicile CDL requirements. Those risks alone will likely keep capacity off the road, and when combined with elevated maintenance costs and the highest average fleet age in over a decade (6.3 years), it is reasonable to expect more drivers will sit out the week to avoid potential violations.
The resulting tightness will be compounded by Roadcheck Week landing just ahead of the pre-Memorial Day demand push. Any increase in volume will likely be held up by capacity constraints, and with a short shipping week following the holiday weekend, the backlog could be slow to clear until capacity levels normalize.
Together, these factors will likely lead to sharp rate increases that may remain elevated until at least after July Fourth, especially if fuel prices stay at or above current levels. From there, rates should settle into the typical Q3 pattern but are unlikely to return to the pre-disruption floor and will remain highly vulnerable to disruption as the year progresses.
The demand picture did not change much month-over-month. Spot load posts were up 68% year-over-year in April as shippers continued to navigate routing guide disruptions and out-of-date contracts. Import volumes have also normalized compared to last year’s tariff-driven disruption. Green shoots in certain manufacturing sectors are also contributing to overall demand stability.
With produce season underway and the 100 Days of Summer rapidly approaching, spot demand will increase amid tightening capacity stemming from Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day. Over time, it’s possible that fuel prices could eventually begin to weigh on truckload volumes, particularly if they disrupt manufacturing output.
Capacity opened in late April as tightness tied to Easter, fuel and the end-of-quarter push eased. Tender rejections declined month-over-month but remained elevated compared to prior-year levels.
Capacity will tighten significantly as the market enters the 100 Days of Summer, with CVSA Roadcheck Week kicking off a volatile three-week stretch in May. High fleet age and reduced maintenance investment, along with stricter enforcement around English language and non-domicile CDL requirements, will increase the likelihood of drivers taking trucks off the road. That disruption will land just ahead of the pre-Memorial Day shipping push and a shortened holiday week, creating backlogged freight that could keep capacity constrained through at least the second week of June.
Spot rates moved lower and settled into more typical seasonal patterns in the back half of April, with national linehaul pricing returning to pre-disruption levels as diesel prices stabilized and shipper urgency subsided. All-in costs, however, remained elevated due to recent fuel-related increases. Reefer rates also notably spiked late in the first quarter, reflecting the type of volatility we expect going forward during periods of seasonal demand increases such as end-of-quarter rushes.
Rates will move higher as demand builds and capacity tightens throughout summer peak season. Volatility will likely be more pronounced than last year, though how high rates rise and how long they remain elevated is still unclear.
Consumer spending and economic activity remained strong through the end of the first quarter. Even when stripping away high fuel prices, March consumer spending posted its largest year-over-year increase since early 2023. Job growth also came in above expectations, but trucking employment continued to decline.
Near-term consumer spending and labor market conditions should remain stable, but elevated fuel prices and broader energy challenges pose a longer-term economic risk that could negatively impact freight demand.
The Canadian market has experienced a significant shift over the last few weeks as capacity has softened across all lanes. This is especially true on northbound cross-border lanes, where U.S.-to-Canada trade volumes remain challenged. Southbound loads are also moving more quickly but continue to command a slightly higher rate per mile (RPM) than northbound loads.
With the “capacity crunch” of previous months fading, shippers can expect continued downward pressure on northbound rates in the near term, while pressure on southbound and intra-Canada lanes is likely to ease. As the U.S. market enters the 100 Days of Summer, these softening trends face some risk as U.S.-based capacity becomes more constrained amid increasing seasonal demand and rising truckload rates.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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