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The short-lived seasonal spike in early July delivered only a brief respite from the stagnant freight market. Seasonal demand caused rates to rise around the Fourth of July holiday, but they quickly slid back, returning to the floor with both spot and contract rates finishing the month flat year-over-year.
On the demand side, activity out of China and Hong Kong drove a sharp import recovery as shippers front-loaded what is typically late-summer retail volume. With inventories still elevated and most seasonal freight already in position, that early push suggests the peak import season, typically seen later in Q3, is already winding down.
Supply remains mostly abundant even as carrier attrition continues. However, there are signs of real challenges that could lead to vulnerable conditions should demand firm up or grow materially. Class 8 tractor orders remain below replacement levels, signaling a likely decline in equipment levels that could tighten capacity in the months ahead. Recent legislation regarding driver English proficiency requirements has also had little, if any, impact on supply conditions.
Looking ahead, fall retail shopping and Labor Day demand may give volumes a slight boost, especially for temperature-controlled freight. But if last year is any indication, the impact will likely be muted. Beyond the near-term, the conditions defining this summer — soft demand, steady supply, low rates and a wide spot-to-contract rate gap — appear set to carry into fall.
Read the full report for a closer look at trends across demand, supply and rates.
July import volumes surged roughly 25% from June, driven almost entirely by shipments from China (44%) and Hong Kong (48%) following the temporary easing of tariffs earlier in the year. Much of that freight moved by rail rather than over the road, which kept truckload demand and rate pressure in check despite near-record volumes at the Port of Los Angeles.
On the domestic side, spot activity climbed sharply — up about 20% year-over-year — while contract volumes remained below prior-year levels. The timing of the import spike pulled typical late-summer retail freight into July, aligning with the seasonal lift around the Fourth of July. Spot activity faded quickly and rates returned to the floor as the month progressed.
With the bulk of seasonal retail imports already stateside, freight demand faces renewed downward pressure through the remainder of Q3. Retail import forecasts point to significant pullbacks through year-end as earlier pull-forward reduces the need for replenishment. New manufacturing orders and the order backlog also continue to contract. While fall retail shopping and Labor Day may give volumes a temporary bump, the gains are likely to be muted.
Tariff policy remains a potential risk, though no immediate changes are expected. For now, steady supply and subdued demand suggest the market will stay soft heading into fall.
Ample truckload capacity kept last month’s demand surge from generating more than short-lived rate volatility. Since the holiday, conditions have eased in line with typical patterns. Van tender rejection rates then followed the usual post-Fourth of July decline, while reefer rejections held relatively stable. Flatbed rejections eased, landing below earlier-year highs but still above year-ago levels.
Van capacity is expected to remain abundant through most of this quarter, with a slight blip possible around Labor Day. Reefer markets are likely to see a modest bump during the same period. Beyond the holiday, persistently weak equipment orders indicate supply could soon begin to tighten, following demand to the downside. If demand were to stabilize and begin to grow, it could expose ongoing capacity reductions.
Spot rates spiked briefly around the Fourth of July but quickly fell back, with all three major equipment types trending down as August began. The spot-to-contract rate gap remained wide, and rail’s absorption of much of the July import surge further limited upward pressure on truckload rates.
Rates should follow typical seasonal patterns through late summer. A modest Labor Day bump is expected, particularly in reefer markets, but any disruption will likely be short-lived. Outside of that, rates across all equipment types are expected to remain flat to down as soft demand and gradual capacity attrition persist.
Inflation held steady in July, signaling minimal impact from tariffs on prices so far. The flat reading has analysts split on its implications for potential interest rate cuts at the Fed’s September meeting. While some investors are pricing in a cut, others expect the Fed to wait for critical jobs data before making a move. Bank of America reported consumer spending rose 1.8% year-over-year — the highest growth rate since January — with gains across both goods and services.
Consumer health should support freight demand in the near term, though higher tariffs may not impact prices until early next year as retailers adjust to new inventory. A meaningful shift in interest rates could also strengthen the housing outlook for 2026.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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