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The pre-Fourth of July and end-of-quarter push played out as expected, with increased tender rejections driving spot rates higher as capacity tightened through late June and early July.
Conditions could ease somewhat now that the peak has passed. However, van and reefer spot rates have climbed to their highest levels since early 2022 and are unlikely to decline meaningfully until shippers resolve routing guide disruptions, which should help bring rejection levels and spot demand down over the next several months.
Beyond seasonal volatility, persistent supply-side challenges remain the primary drivers of the sustained disruption. Sharply rising insurance premiums and insurability standards following a recent liability ruling are adding financial pressure on carriers already navigating elevated operating costs. Enforcement of non-domiciled CDL and ELP regulations is also constraining capacity, with roughly 5,000 drivers placed Out of Service in the past two months from the latter alone and many others exiting the market to limit their exposure.
In response, carriers are raising driver wages at the fastest two-month pace on record to attract and retain drivers in a shrinking labor pool. That trend is unlikely to reverse soon and will likely contribute to a higher rate floor during the second half of the year.
The demand picture is mixed. Housing and construction volumes continue to lag, but imports increased through June as shippers pulled freight forward ahead of the July 24 expiration of the flat 10% tariff established in February. Combined with growth in manufacturing, AI-related infrastructure investment and persistent consumer spending growth, these gains suggest near-term freight demand will remain relatively healthy.
Aside from a brief disruption around Labor Day, the calendar is now clear of significant seasonal events until Thanksgiving. Seasonal volatility is therefore expected to remain relatively limited, though a meaningful demand spike or intensifying regulatory action could still disrupt the fragile supply environment. The coming weeks should provide greater clarity on the market’s direction through year-end.
Read on for a deeper look at the demand, supply, rate and economic data shaping the road ahead.
Demand showed signs of improvement through June and early July. Port of Los Angeles volumes climbed sharply year-over-year as shippers pulled freight forward, manufacturing expanded for a sixth consecutive month and consumer spending remained strong with an added boost tied to the World Cup.
Labor Day will be the next market inflection point, but volumes are unlikely to rise enough to drive sustained volatility. Beyond that, demand should hold steady until holiday peak season activity ramps up ahead of Thanksgiving.
Capacity tightened as expected in late June and tender rejections remain elevated as of mid-July. Insurance premiums are climbing, regulatory enforcement continues to intensify and carriers are raising wages to retain and recruit drivers in a shrinking labor pool.
Capacity should soften somewhat in the coming weeks as seasonal pressures ease, but structural challenges will limit meaningful rate relief in the near term. Competition for available equipment will mean higher-for-longer rates as fleet growth struggles to offset the effects of elevated operating costs and continued regulatory enforcement.
Rate growth has yet to slow in 2026, with May and June of this year ranking among the five largest single-month increases ever recorded. Spot rates have fallen since the July Fourth peak but remain elevated. Van rates, excluding fuel, are now up around 50% year-over-year with contract linehaul rates up 19% over the same timeframe.
With spot rates still elevated well above contract, shippers will soon begin to reset pricing higher in an effort to regain control of routing guides. That process should continue through at least early 2027, and contract rates could reach their highest levels in years by the time it’s complete.
Consumer spending was strong through June, with lower-income households showing the largest gains and World Cup host cities providing a significant boost. The labor market held steady, and inflation eased as energy costs declined.
Although the outlook for interest rate cuts this year remains uncertain, cooling inflation could reduce the likelihood of further hikes. Renewed volatility in the Middle East could push fuel prices higher, once again making energy costs and broader inflationary pressures key risks.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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