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May data showed continued seasonality in a freight market that remains in somewhat of a holding pattern. Aside from temporary volatility as supply contracted around Roadcheck Week, the narrative of the last few months held true: low volume, persistently strong supply and spot rates that settle as quickly as they spike.
While we don’t anticipate a near-term demand disruption significant enough to trigger sustained inflationary conditions, several variables could shape the market’s trajectory through the remainder of peak season.
First, while it’s challenging to predict a precise outcome, the pending court decision on the legality of elevated U.S. tariffs could prove to be a critical turning point in the ongoing trade war. The impact of increased U.S.-China tariffs has started to materialize in the data, particularly on the import side. That said, the recent reduction of some tariffs has temporarily eased pressure, and forward-looking import data—on orders placed but not yet shipped—suggests a volume recovery may be on the horizon.
However, economic headwinds are also a key factor, as rising prices have led to cooling consumer spending that could put demand at greater risk of faltering.
Meanwhile, resilient carriers are supporting strong supply levels amid ongoing volume declines, limiting upward rate pressure even as spot activity briefly increased last month. If sluggish demand and elevated capacity levels persist, it could limit any upside market potential in the coming months.
New and forthcoming regulations from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration—such as identity verification and English proficiency requirements—might also begin to reduce available capacity, though the exact timing and impact of the changes remain uncertain.
With the May market test behind us, all eyes now turn to how conditions will shape up amid these variables ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.
For a closer look at what’s happening across demand, supply and rates, keep reading.
Spot activity increased during Roadcheck Week, though it was largely due to reduced capacity on the road versus surging demand. Otherwise, volume trends remained soft. Load volumes declined on both a year-over-year and two-year basis, extending the persistently weakening demand trends throughout this spring.
Import volumes also dropped sharply from April to May, driven primarily by the initial round of high tariffs on Chinese goods, which slowed inbound shipments and pushed total import levels well below early-year benchmarks. The result was a quieter May than normal, even after adjusting for seasonality.
While brief periods of volatility should continue as peak season marches on, near-term demand is expected to remain under pressure through the end of the quarter. However, recent import order activity has led to at least a short-term recovery in volume, with the potential for further gains in June and July if overseas ordering patterns continue.
Even so, domestic demand faces additional headwinds. Manufacturing activity contracted for the third straight month, with production, new orders and backlogs all trending down. Combined with elevated prices and cooling consumer spending, these trends suggest limited upside for freight volumes in the coming months.
Normal seasonal supply trends also continued to play out in May and early June. Van and reefer load-to-truck ratios and rejection rates rose during Roadcheck Week—both month-over-month and year-over-year—and remained elevated through Memorial Day before easing as capacity returned to the market. Meanwhile, the flatbed market has finally cooled from recent peaks.
Supply levels should hold steady through at least the end of the quarter. While some tightening is possible in the lead-up to July Fourth, market conditions will likely mirror those seen around Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day.
However, with new truck orders trending below replacement levels as private fleets and other carriers continue to dial back investment amid ongoing demand uncertainty, supply could face challenges if volume surges back later this year.
Truckload rates followed normal seasonal patterns in May. Weekly rate data showed a similar trend to last year, with elevated late-month activity giving way to softer conditions in early June as the urgency around Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day subsided.
Still, with tender rejection rates fading toward 2024 levels and only regionalized seasonal demand surges making an impact to rates, national trends continue to reflect the broader narrative of weakening volumes and ample capacity.
July Fourth falling on a Friday this year will create a short shipping week that could drive significant volatility ahead of the holiday weekend. Given the prevailing market narrative, though, any rate increases will likely fade quickly as conditions normalize and enter a period of seasonal softening through July and August.
The only near-term variable that could delay that downturn is CVSA Operation Safe Driver Week (July 13–19), which may reduce capacity if enforcement is particularly strict this year.
Notably, fuel prices have also climbed 20% over the past month, and further increases could follow if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.
Economic conditions remained stable through May. Inflation ticked up slightly and led to higher prices, but the labor market was strong enough to stave off sharp spending declines. However, softening manufacturing and uncertainty around trade and monetary policy point to a muted economic outlook.
Labor market strength should continue to support consumer health through the end of the quarter, but if other downside risks continue on their current trajectory, freight volumes could be negatively affected.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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