This document contains our comprehensive outlook for national dry van and reefer truckload rates through December 2024. The Arrive Insights® team generated this forecast through a combination of extensive historical research and output from the predictive models built into ARRIVEnow, our proprietary technology platform.
Successfully navigating freight market ebbs and flows begins with a basic understanding of the relationship between rates and the unique components of truckload supply and demand. Simply put, high or increasing demand and tight capacity will cause upward rate pressure, whereas low or easing demand and ample available capacity will drive rates down.
By tracking directional trends for truckload demand (volume) and available capacity (trucks) in the market at any given time, we can predict rate trends with a high degree of accuracy and consistency.
We anticipate the spot rate floor increasing as 2024 progresses, resetting higher through periods of seasonal volatility. Contract rates will continue to normalize, but fall at a slower rate than in 2023, finding a floor sometime in Q2 or Q3. A shrinking contract-spot rate gap will increase the market’s vulnerability to significant disruption. However, any major disruption will likely require a black swan event or other catalyst, making predicting the exact timing of a major shift very difficult.
Freight tonnage is unlikely to give trucking conditions a meaningful boost, however, a resetting inventory cycle should help support flat to slow demand growth. Downside risk remains as economic conditions normalize toward pre-pandemic levels.
The market remains oversupplied but will become increasingly vulnerable to disruption as the year progresses.
The wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the threat of attacks in the Red Sea, are all risks that have impacted global trade, and could continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Similarly, tensions between China and Taiwan could impact Asia-U.S. relations and trade, including Taiwan’s prominent semiconductor production.
Although a recession is likely off the table in the short term, uncertainty for economic conditions remains. Effects from elevated inflation and interest rates are still materializing and could cause conditions to worsen faster than expected, resulting in declining trucking demand due to dwindling consumer demand and manufacturing pullbacks.
Severe weather is a frequent source of freight market disruption. Winter storms early in Q1 had a recognizable impact and could be a foreshadowing for future weather-related disruptions. Additionally, drought in the Panama Canal region is impacting global trade flows, which could lead to a shift in import ports of entry.
Spot rates continue to persist below public truckload carriers’ operating cost per mile for most of the past year. When this occurs, it usually isn’t long before spot rates rebound or experience some upward pressure because rates can only fall so far before carriers start to lose money and decide to sit out or leave the market entirely. This scenario creates a floor for rates and is why our forecasted spot rates typically trend to the downside. With capacity exiting the market, spot rates will likely continue to see a floor reset higher after each period of seasonal volatility.
A factor that has now had impacts on the forecast trends due to volatility in both directions, rapidly changing fuel surcharges can make measuring forecast errors more complex. They can also create different behavioral profiles for shippers and carriers in the marketplace. For example, rapidly declining fuel costs drive more favorable conditions for carriers and alleviate pressure on shippers looking for cost reductions. As of late, fuel has stabilized, but over the past 24 months, we have redefined what fuel price volatility looks like.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Freight fraud continues to impact our industry. We encourage shippers and carriers to reach out to Arrive immediately if there is ever a shipment in question that may be subject to fraud (including fictitious actors and websites). Arrive will not ask you to pay upfront for any dedicated lane or committed capacity program. If the offer you are receiving sounds too good to be true or unrealistic, it may be fraud. Arrive Logistics recommends verifying all communications come from our registered email domain is @arrivelogistics.com and notes that access via VPN or Proxy is prohibited on Arrive systems. Our 24/7 phone number is 888-861-0650 and our leadership team can also be reached at feedback@arrivelogistics.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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