This document contains our comprehensive outlook for national dry van and reefer truckload rates through December 2024. The Arrive Insights® team generated this forecast through a combination of extensive historical research and output from the predictive models built into ARRIVEnow, our proprietary technology platform.
Successfully navigating freight market ebbs and flows begins with a basic understanding of the relationship between rates and the unique components of truckload supply and demand. Simply put, high or increasing demand and tight capacity will cause upward rate pressure, whereas low or easing demand and ample available capacity will drive rates down.
By tracking directional trends for truckload demand (volume) and available capacity (trucks) in the market at any given time, we can predict rate trends with a high degree of accuracy and consistency.
As 2024 progresses, we anticipate spot rates will remain relatively stable, with some volatility in line with typical seasonal patterns. Contract rates will continue to normalize but slower than in 2023, likely finding a floor in late Q3 or early Q4 2024. The contract-spot rate gap will decrease slightly over the year, marginally increasing the market’s vulnerability to significant disruption. However, given the current oversupply of capacity, any major disruption would likely require a black swan event or other catalyst, making it difficult to predict the exact timing of the next major cycle shift.
Forecast Indicates:
Freight tonnage is unlikely to significantly improve trucking conditions. However, a resilient economy and steady consumer demand amid ongoing inflation are keeping demand relatively stable. Downside risk remains as economic conditions show signs of a potential slowdown.
The market remains oversupplied and is thus unlikely to experience a significant enough correction to increase vulnerability to disruption in 2024.
Ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East, along with the threat of more attacks in the Red Sea, could continue to impact global trade. Similarly, tensions between China and Taiwan could affect Asia-U.S. relations and trade, particularly regarding Taiwan’s significant semiconductor production.
Although a recession seems unlikely in the short term, uncertainty remains. Effects from elevated inflation and interest rates are still emerging and could worsen conditions faster than expected, leading to declining trucking demand due to reduced consumer spending and manufacturing slowdowns.
Severe weather frequently disrupts the freight market. Winter storms early in Q1 had a notable impact, potentially indicating the market’s response to future weather-related disruptions. Additionally, forecasts for this year’s hurricane season show a high probability of numerous large storms, which have historically acted as inflationary catalysts.
Spot rates have remained below the operating cost per mile for public truckload carriers for most of the past year. When this happens, spot rates usually rebound or experience upward pressure because rates can only fall so far before carriers start losing money and exit the market. This scenario creates a rate floor, which is why our forecasted spot rates typically trend downward. As more capacity exits the market, spot rates will likely reset higher after each period of seasonal volatility.
Volatile fuel prices have impacted forecast trends, with rapid fuel surcharge changes complicating the measurement of forecast errors. These fluctuations can also alter shipper and carrier behavior. For instance, rapidly declining fuel costs create more favorable conditions for carriers and reduce pressure on shippers seeking cost reductions. Although fuel prices have been relatively stable recently, the past 2-3 years have redefined fuel price volatility.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Freight fraud continues to impact our industry. We encourage shippers and carriers to reach out to Arrive immediately if there is ever a shipment in question that may be subject to fraud (including fictitious actors and websites). Arrive will not ask you to pay upfront for any dedicated lane or committed capacity program. If the offer you are receiving sounds too good to be true or unrealistic, it may be fraud. Arrive Logistics recommends verifying all communications come from our registered email domain is @arrivelogistics.com and notes that access via VPN or Proxy is prohibited on Arrive systems. Our 24/7 phone number is 888-861-0650 and our leadership team can also be reached at feedback@arrivelogistics.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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