Introduction

Our 2027 Truckload Freight Forecast provides an outlook for linehaul rates excluding fuel. However, as elevated diesel prices continue to impact transportation costs, Arrive’s Market Intelligence team developed this supplement to provide additional context on the current environment and budgeting guidance for ongoing volatility into 2027.

The bottom line: 2027 fuel spend risk is skewed higher, so budget for continued disruption.

Key Takeaways

• Record prices: Diesel hit $6.53 per gallon the week of September 21. With the full-year average still rising, 2026 will be the most expensive diesel year on record.
  
• Two supply shocks: The Middle East shipping disruption is the bigger hit today, while Russian refinery damage and the export ban are smaller but slower to fix.
  
• No near-term relief: Prices will remain elevated through Q4 2026 regardless of diplomatic progress. Even if Middle East disruptions are resolved quickly, Russian supply constraints will keep a floor under diesel into mid-2027.
  
• Rule of thumb: Each $0.10 per gallon change moves fuel spend by about $167,000 per 10 million miles, meaning a $0.30 increase would add roughly $500,000 in fuel costs over the same distance.
  
• Budget impact: 2027 fuel spend will rise significantly year over year, even if diesel prices moderate from current levels.
  
• How to prepare: Budget fuel separately from linehaul, plan around a documented diesel price assumption and hold enough contingency to cover a prolonged disruption.

2026 Diesel Trends 

Diesel started 2026 near $3.46 per gallon, then climbed steadily after the Iran war began in late February. Prices rose sharply in September, hitting $5.97 on the 7th to surpass the previous weekly record set in June 2022 before rising another $0.56 over the next two weeks.

Diesel Price Benchmarks

Measure	Price per gallon
2025 price range	$3.50 to $3.80
2026 year-to-date average (through September 21)	$4.97
National average, week of September 21	$6.53
West Coast average, week of September 21	$7.46
Gulf Coast average, week of September 21	$6.18

The regional gap: West Coast diesel ran $1.28 per gallon above Gulf Coast diesel the week of September 21. Surcharges indexed to the national average won’t capture that gap.

Diesel Outlook Through Year-End 2026

Measure	Price per gallon
EIA full-year 2026 estimate	$5.07
EIA Q4 2026 forecast	$5.55

The lag factor: The EIA’s full-year 2026 estimate predates September’s surge. If the September 21 price holds through year-end, the 2026 average would be closer to $5.35 to $5.40. The next EIA outlook is set for October 6.

Disruption Drivers, Impact and Duration 

Iran and its allies have restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.–Israeli strikes on February 28 and, more recently, through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes have taken about 40% of Russia’s refining capacity offline.

Together, the Gulf and Russia exported about 1.6 million fewer barrels of diesel per day in August than in February. Before the war, they supplied roughly 45% of global seaborne diesel trade.

The table below summarizes the scale, primary cause and expected duration of each disruption.

Key Disruptions

Primary disruption	Share of lost diesel exports	Potential relief
Middle East (Strait of Hormuz): Restricted shipping, with about 3M bbl/day of Gulf refining shut by attacks and blocked export routes	About 1.0M bbl/day (roughly 60% of the combined decline)	Weeks to months after a durable deal is reached
Russia: About 40% of Russian refining capacity is offline following drone strikes	About 0.6M bbl/day (roughly 40% of the combined decline)	Not before mid-2027, as damaged refineries must be physically rebuilt

Russia’s export ban: The ban, in place since July, has drawn headlines but is not the core issue. Exports had already collapsed due to refinery damage before the ban took effect, so lifting it would not restore meaningful supply.

Domestic impact: The U.S. is exposed despite importing little diesel from either region. Overseas buyers are bidding for U.S. supply while domestic refineries are running near full capacity and inventories remain below the five-year low.

Diplomatic efforts: U.S.–Iran talks remain stalled as of September 28. The U.S. rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen Hormuz, though further talks are expected. A similar agreement reached in June collapsed into renewed fighting.

Outlook by Period 

• Q4 2026: Prices will remain elevated regardless of diplomatic progress. Inventories are at record lows heading into the harvest and heating seasons, along with a period of refinery maintenance.
  
• H1 2027: At best, prices will ease, but Russian outages will keep a floor under them even if Hormuz reopens.
  
• H2 2027: The direction depends on Hormuz. The EIA’s relief-based forecast assumes flows normalize soon. However, it was completed on September 3, before the surge, leaving risk skewed to the upside.

Budgeting for Fuel in 2027

If current conditions continue or escalate, 2027 fuel spend will easily surpass 2026. We recommend planning for a prolonged disruption, at a minimum, and preparing for the possibility of continued escalation.

For example, consider a shipper running 10 million loaded truckload miles per year, or about 20,000 loads at 500 miles each. Using surcharge terms of a $1.25 peg and 6 mpg, plus a 2026 average diesel price of $5.07 per gallon, that shipper’s 2026 fuel spend comes to about $6.4 million. The table below shows how that shipper’s 2027 fuel spend shifts under each scenario.

2027 Fuel Spend Scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	2027 diesel	Fuel spend	vs. 2026 est.
Relief	Hormuz reopens by year-end and flows hold	$4.40	$5.3M	−18%
Prolonged Disruption	Disruption persists well into 2027	$5.50	$7.1M	+11%
Continued Escalation	Wider conflict damages Gulf infrastructure	$6.50	$8.8M	+37%

The scenarios are illustrative planning assumptions, not forecasts.

Actions to Take Now

1. Separate fuel from linehaul: Use the 2027 Truckload Freight Forecast for linehaul and the scenarios above for fuel to avoid mistaking diesel swings for procurement wins or losses.
   
2. Fund a contingency: Size it to cover a prolonged disruption and establish release triggers with finance in advance.
   
3. Audit surcharge terms and brief leadership: Align peg prices, fuel economy, indexes and reset timing across carriers. Make sure finance, sales and operations understand that fuel is an external, volatile cost. Large shippers may also consider fixed-fuel agreements or hedges with their treasury teams.

Read Next