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Record diesel prices and the end-of-quarter push briefly reignited rate volatility in late September and early October as carriers began passing higher fuel costs on to shippers. That seasonal pressure has since faded, and tender rejections have returned to their post-summer floor, but diesel remains elevated with little relief in sight as strained global fuel markets are likely to extend that trend into 2027 (learn more in our recent fuel outlook and budget guide).
Beyond the rate impact, fuel costs are becoming a meaningful financial burden for carriers, particularly fleets that have lengthy payment terms and must cover those costs upfront while revenue from freight hauled at higher diesel prices is still weeks away. In some cases, that strain may force them to shut down until the market improves or go out of business altogether.
This pressure adds to a long list of challenges already constraining supply, including ongoing regulatory enforcement, tight driver availability, elevated operating costs and aging equipment. Trucking employment and the tractor population have both improved slightly in recent months, but stronger pricing has yet to spark the kind of supply growth typical at this point in an inflationary cycle.
While record September imports, continued manufacturing expansion and modest year-over-year shipment growth helped support volumes, recent demand has not been strong enough to test the fragile supply environment. And with import peak season now over, a higher September CPI print, rising interest rates and fading consumer sentiment continue to weaken the medium- to long-term demand outlook.
Conditions should hold steady through at least early November. From there, holiday demand and winter weather will begin to tighten capacity, especially in the reefer market as food shipments and freeze-protect demand grow. With carriers still slow to add trucks, those seasonal disruptions will likely hit harder than usual.
Read on for more on the demand, supply, rate and economic data shaping the road ahead.
Supply constraints are keeping flatbed rejection rates elevated despite easing demand.
Shippers looking to cut costs continue to move freight to intermodal, where contract rates remain about 40% below truckload.
Strong import volume continues to drive drayage demand and rates higher.
Truckload demand remained relatively soft in September. Seasonal disruptions briefly lifted spot activity, but the uptick was muted as recent network reconfigurations improved routing guide compliance. U.S. container imports reached their highest September volume on record, led by growth from China, though much of that freight moved inland via intermodal after coming ashore in Southern California. Manufacturing also continued to expand.
Demand should continue to soften ahead of Q4 peak season as imports pull back with most holiday freight already in position. Higher spot utilization is expected later in the quarter as more carrier time off around the holidays and shippers’ growing sense of urgency lead to deviations from typical contract freight flows.
Tender rejections briefly rose amid increased seasonal activity before settling back to an elevated floor. Spot equipment postings, trucking employment and the tractor population each improved slightly, but none of those gains signals a meaningful supply recovery.
Capacity should hold steady until seasonal pressure begins building in November, especially in the reefer market as holiday food demand and freeze-protect needs grow. After nearly two years of fleet contraction, carriers have little cushion to absorb significant disruption.
Rising diesel prices continued to push all-in rates higher across modes. Van led spot linehaul price increases in late September and early October as carriers caught up on fuel-related adjustments and quarter-end demand added pressure. Flatbed spot pricing showed little movement, and contract rates held relatively steady across modes.
High diesel prices will keep all-in costs elevated, while linehaul rates should see limited movement in the near term. Holiday demand and winter weather will bring back rate volatility later in Q4 and likely produce the largest swings in the reefer market.
Rising energy prices pushed inflation higher in September, and interest rates continued to climb. Consumer spending and the labor market both held steady, though fuel purchases made up a meaningful share of spending growth.
Persistent inflation, higher interest rates and rising energy and transportation costs will likely keep weighing on consumers and, in turn, freight demand. Diesel prices should also stay elevated into next year given strained global fuel supply.
Northbound U.S.-to-Canada volumes are fading quickly as tariffs cut into demand for U.S. goods. Spot rates on those lanes fell in September, while southbound rates rose and are now up 20% year-over-year. That gap is showing up in pricing, as carriers who know they will have to quote low on return freight, or deadhead or lay over to find it, are asking for more on southbound loads. Elevated fuel costs are adding to that pressure and keeping day-to-day rates volatile.
Expect weak northbound demand and higher, volatile southbound pricing to continue. Conditions could tighten sooner than usual: from late November through February, many foreign drivers take extended time off, and Canadian truck capacity is already near a cycle bottom with the tractor fleet shrinking. A very tight U.S. driver supply and elevated diesel prices could also contribute to higher cross-border rates heading into 2027, though northbound rates will likely stay below U.S. levels. Ongoing uncertainty around the USMCA, which the U.S. will review only annually rather than renew, adds to the volatility.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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