07 Oct 2026
Arrive recently hosted shippers in New York City for a Market Pulse event where Lee Klaskow, Senior Freight Transportation & Logistics Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joined David Spencer, Arrive VP of Market Intelligence, to discuss where the freight market stands today and what lies ahead in 2027.
Read on to learn what both experts believe will shape capacity, demand and rates in the year ahead.
Recent data shows that the truckload market has entered a period of relative calm:
David and Lee next discussed the core question at this point in the cycle: have we passed peak rate inflation, or will it continue into 2027? Their short answer is that growth may cool, but rates aren’t coming back down. Here’s why.
Lee estimates the market is about halfway through the driver exits tied to enforcement. Arrive CEO Matt Pyatt added that Highway’s compliance data shows 10 to 15% of drivers have already left, with another 10% expected to exit.
Even so, carriers have turned less optimistic. In Bloomberg Intelligence’s latest survey with Truckstop, fewer carriers see rates rising over the next three to six months, and a growing share expect conditions to soften, likely due to weakening demand and a sense that enforcement is largely complete.
So is enforcement really winding down? David weighed in:
Lee expects this rate cycle to run longer than the usual 12 to 18 months, and he pointed to how this round of driver exits differs from past downturns:
Carrier operating expenses rose nearly 30% from 2021 to 2025 while spot rates fell below the cost to serve, leaving fleets with three years of thin or negative margins, aging equipment and overdue wage increases.
The average tractor is now close to six and a half years old, the oldest in more than a decade. While truck orders jumped in September, partly as carriers switched to 2027 models, signs of fleet growth are only beginning to emerge.
David tied those three lean years directly to where rates go next:
Weak demand has kept rate increases from running even higher, but it’s also hiding how thin the capacity base has become. Manufacturing expansion and data center construction continue to support volumes, while weak housing activity, elevated interest rates and shippers shifting freight to rail or their own fleets are weighing on the outlook.
The consumer is another risk. Sentiment is lower than during the pandemic, mortgage rates have climbed to about 7.5% and markets expect three more quarter-point rate hikes over the next year. If growth forecasts come down, consumer spending will likely drive the decline, and a household pullback would have a big impact on 2027 freight.
David explained why the risks to his 2027 rate outlook are skewed to the upside:
Tight capacity has also made the market far more reactive this year. Even routine events like Labor Day and end-of-quarter deadlines created volatility, and capacity, especially reefer, typically tightens further heading into winter as freeze-protect and food-season volumes pick up.
Putting his supply and demand outlooks together, David described what shippers can expect in 2027:
David expects contract rates to keep climbing through RFP season before growth levels off, and since contracts go “up like a rocket and down like a parachute,” they’ll be slow to follow even if year-over-year spot growth flattens by mid-2027. Reefer contract rates will likely face upward pressure through peak season, and shippers who can push those RFPs past the first-quarter slowdown may see a smaller increase.
How much higher could contracts climb? Lee put some numbers on it:
Diesel prices recently hit a record high as Ukraine claims its strikes have knocked out roughly half of Russia’s refining capacity and the conflict continues in the Middle East.
David warned that relief at the pump may not mean relief in the budget, and that fuel deserves its own conversation in 2027 planning:
Shippers in attendance also asked our presenters several important questions. Here are a few highlights.
It’s a real risk for fleets already near the edge. When diesel spikes, expenses rise faster than revenue while surcharges take time to catch up, and the squeeze is worse in states with above-average fuel prices, like California. One recent industry report tied roughly 17 carrier closures in the past month to the price spike. Smaller operators face the most risk, especially those that are still making up for years of low earnings.
One payroll dataset showed a 13.5% jump in driver pay over two months this spring, but that’s likely an overestimate — an increase closer to 10% this year is a fairer read. Wages are the largest line item in carrier operating costs and are on track to reach about $0.90 per mile.
Some carriers did leave, but much of the initial drop came from carriers listing fewer trucks, since more loads on the boards in late 2024 gave them less reason to post equipment. Tariffs then calmed the market in early 2025. From there, English language proficiency enforcement, broader FMCSA action and a third year of poor rates pushed capacity out, and by last year’s low, employment data showed roughly 125,000 fewer jobs than at the pandemic peak.
They are, since drivers with out-of-spec equipment risk being put out of service. If regulators also remove self-certified ELDs, carriers working around the rules today would have to run fully compliant, which slows how fast they move freight and limits capacity. Highway’s estimate also leaves out a potential ELD crackdown, and drivers who aren’t fully ELD-compliant account for a significant share of supply, even if no one knows exactly how much.
Data centers have run into local opposition. Projects with signed deals will likely still move forward, but the debate takes time, and significant pushback could derail some of the GDP growth economists expect. Higher interest rates and diesel costs are unlikely to slow construction much given how profitable data centers are, though building may step down slightly. Community concerns over noise, water and power are the bigger problem.
Bloomberg Intelligence provides research and data on more than 2,000 companies to help investors make informed decisions. Lee also hosts Talking Transports, a weekly podcast covering the transportation industry.
We also publish several freight market resources at no cost to you. Check out our 2027 Truckload Freight Forecast for more on where the market is heading next year, and keep up with the latest on rates, demand, capacity and economic conditions by getting the Arrive Freight Market Update delivered directly to your inbox every month.
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Matt Pyatt is the Chief Executive Officer of Arrive Logistics. He co-founded Arrive with President Eric Dunigan in 2014 after building his career at Command Transportation. As CEO, he is responsible for overseeing the company’s financial health, strategic vision and culture, as well as building a scalable leadership team to support Arrive’s growth.
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Scott Sandager is the Chief Administrative Officer at Arrive Logistics. He joined Arrive in 2018, bringing over 14 years of logistics and brokerage experience, with expertise in project and change management, organizational design, talent development and customer satisfaction. Scott previously held many diverse roles of increasing responsibility with AFN, a Chicago-based freight brokerage.
Eric Dunigan is the President of Arrive Logistics. He began his career at Command Transportation before co-founding Arrive with Matt Pyatt in 2014. As president, he is responsible for driving revenue and growth, as well as leading the Strategic Partnerships team — a veteran group of supply chain experts who work with Arrive’s customers to reimagine their shipping strategy.
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David Spencer is the Vice President of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics. David joined Arrive in 2017 after spending six years at AFN focused on business intelligence. His department provides critical market data and expert analysis to internal teams and publishes monthly market updates for shippers and carriers under the Arrive Insights banner.
Andrew Clarke is Board Chairman for Global Critical and DCLI, Inc., and a board member for Arrive Logistics and Element Fleet Management Corp. His 20 years of global transportation and logistics experience include time as CFO of C.H. Robinson, CEO of Panther Expedited Services, Inc. and SVP and CFO roles at Forward Air Corporation.
Dean Croke is a Market Analyst at DAT Solutions, where he focuses on freight market intelligence and data analytics. His 35 years of experience with data analytics, transportation, supply chain management, mining and insurance risk management include time as co-founder of FleetRisk Advisors and in a number of other high-level roles with FreightWaves, Spireon, Lancer Insurance, Omnitracs Analytics (formerly Qualcomm) and more.
Asanka Jayasuriya is the CTO at 8VC. He is an accomplished engineering and product leader with 20+ years of experience in the cloud. He has a strong background in enterprise SaaS, PLG products, infrastructure, and security. Notably, he served as CTO and SVP of Engineering at SailPoint, leading their successful transition to the cloud and successful exit event. He also held senior leadership roles at InVision, Atlassian, and Amazon, driving growth, operational excellence, and innovation. At 8VC, Asanka works with the entrepreneurs and leaders in our portfolio as a virtual CTO supporting their growth.
Chad Eichelberger is the President of Reliance Partners. Since 2015, he’s leveraged his extensive experience in risk management, compliance, best practices and contracts to lead the company’s logistics and truck insurance strategy and operations. Chad was previously the President of Access America Transport, where he led the company from $8M to over $600M in revenue.
Barry Conlon is the CEO and founder of Overhaul, the global leader in active supply chain risk management and intelligence. With a remarkable career spanning over 30 years in supply chain security, he is widely regarded as a trailblazer in modern-day supply chain security standards and best practices.
As VP and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, Tim analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative powertrain development (i.e. electrification), and authors the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook. He previously spent fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries, and co-founded leading equity research firm Wolfe Research.
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